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Le cours du pétrole plombé par une offre abondante, vers un retournement de la tendance ?

Alors que les consommateurs se désespèrent du prix de l’essence et du gasoil dans l’Hexagone, 2014 pourrait débuter sur une bonne nouvelle : le cours du pétrole coté à New York est descendu jeudi à son plus bas en huit mois. Une tendance due en grande partie à la perspective d’une offre abondante, tant aux Etats-Unis que dans d’autres régions du monde.

Reste que le délai de prise en compte de la baisse sur les prix à la pompe est tel que les effets d’une telle chute ne seront pas perçus de sitôt.

Le baril de light sweet crude (WTI) pour livraison en février aura ainsi baisé de 67 cent sur le New York Mercantile Exchange(Nymex), clôturant la journée à 91,66 dollars, ce qui correspond à son plus bas niveau depuis le 1er mai 2013.

Parallèlement à Londres, le baril de Brent de la mer du Nord pour la même échéance achevait la journée à 106,39 dollars sur l’Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), chutant de 76 cents par rapport à la clôture de mercredi.

Certains analystes considèrent désormais que le prix du baril devrait poursuivre sa tendance baissière amorcée par la publication mercredi du rapport des autorités américaines sur les réserves de produits pétroliers aux Etats-Unis. Lequel a fait état de niveaux de production inobservés depuis des décennies, d’une demande atone en produits raffinés et d’une forte hausse des réserves à Cushing, lieu de stockage du brut de référence du WTI.

Parallèlement, l’offre de brut est loin de diminuer dans le reste du monde, la production de l’Arabie saoudite aurait même légèrement progressé en décembre, si l’on en croit les spécialistes du secteur.

Les tensions entre l’Iran et l’Union européenne pourraient quant à elles s’estomper à la faveur d’un accord intérimaire sur le programme nucléaire controversé de Téhéran, ouvrant la voie à une levée d’embargo sur les exportations de brut iraniennes.

Si l‘Irak fait actuellement l’objet de nouvelles violences, événements de nature notamment à freiner la reprise de la production de pétrole du pays, cette dernière devrait toutefois reprendre progressivement de l’importance.

A la mi-octobre, Hussein al-Shahristani, vice-premier ministre irakien chargé de l’Energie, a ainsi déclaré que  son pays entendait porter ses exportations de pétrole à 4 millions de barils par jour d’ici la fin du premier trimestre 2014. Ajoutant que l’Irak s’engagerait dans la concurrence avec son voisin, l’Arabie Saoudite, pour les marchés asiatiques.  A l’heure actuelle, l’Irak produit actuellement environ 3,3 millions de barils par jour, prévoyant d’augmenter sa production pétrolière jusqu’à 3,5 millions de barils au début de  l’année 2014. Le pays exporte sa production principalement vers l’Asie (60%), les Etats-Unis (20%) et l’Europe (20%).

Selon l’Agence américaine d’information sur l’Energie (EIA), l’Arabie Saoudite a exporté en moyenne pour sa part 7,5 millions bpj en 2012.

A noter également que si l’annonce de la forte baisse de production sur le champ pétrolier Buzzard en mer du Nord a pu contribuer à la hausse des cours du brut en début de séance, le soufflé est progressivement retombé durant la journée. Une nouvelle vigueur du billet vert pesant sur les cours de brut, rendant en effet moins attractifs les achats de brut – libellés en dollar – pour les investisseurs munis d’autres devises.

Notons enfin l’impact d’un effet boule de neige sur la tendance actuelle :  le franchissement du seuil technique des 90 dollars attendu prochainement accentuant la chute du prix du baril.

Sources : AFP, Reuters

Elisabeth Studer – www.leblogfinance.com  – 09 janvier 2014

A lire également :

. L’Iran veut développer la production de gaz de South Pars … et dépasser le Qatar

. Accord Iran/USA : le Pentagone maintient sa présence dans le Golfe en vue de rassurer ses alliés

. Irak : exportations de pétrole au plus bas, prix à payer pour mieux sauter

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