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Brexit : la Banque d’Angleterre prédit la chute de l’immobilier

Brexit : la Banque d’Angleterre prédit la chute de l’immobilier

Le Brexit : sujet de cauchemars de plus en plus de responsables britanniques. Après le patron de JLR (Jaguar Land Rover) qui s’inquiète de ne pas pouvoir produire en temps et en heure suite au chaos que les conséquences concrètes d’une sortie du Royaume-Uni de l’UE pourrait provoquer, c’est au tour de Mark Carney, gouverneur de la Banque d’Angleterre, de mettre en garde contre la chute du prix de l’immobilier en l’absence d’accord.

Selon Mark Carney, le marché britannique de l’immobilier pourrait s’effondrer et les taux hypothécaires augmenter selon une spirale infernale en cas d’une sortie chaotique de l’Union européenne. Il prévoit ainsi que les prix des logements chutent de 35% en trois ans. Une mise en garde énoncée à l’encontre des ministres, et rapporté par le journal « The Times ».

Si le Royaume-Uni devrait certes quitter l’Union européenne le 29 mars prochain, rien n’est clair à l’heure actuelle. Il n’y a pas jusqu’ici d’accord entre Bruxelles et Londres pour une sortie complète et certains rebelles du Parti conservateur du Premier ministre Theresa May ont menacé de voter contre un accord si cette dernière parvenait tout de même à trouver une issue, à force de négociations.

Les journaux britanniques, dont le Financial Times, le Times et le Guardian, ont donné des détails sur l’exposé de Mark Carney au Cabinet (organe de décision collective du gouvernement britannique, composé du Premier ministre et d’autres ministres). La Banque d’Angleterre a toutefois refusé de commenter le sujet, et de préciser le contexte exact des remarques du gouverneur de la Banque d’Angleterre.

Selon The Guardian, Mark Carney a averti les ministres, y compris Theresa May, que l’impact d’un chaotique Brexit – sans accord – pourrait être aussi catastrophique que la crise financière de 2008.

S’exprimant devant la banque centrale irlandaise vendredi, le gouverneur n’a pas directement fait allusion aux informations relayées par les médias, mais a toutefois réaffirmé que la Banque d’Angleterre (BoE / Bank of England) avait testé la capacité des banques à faire face à des scénarios «très sévères» comprenant des «baisses spectaculaires et dramatiques des prix de l’immobilier » et une progression très forte des taux d’intérêt ».

«Ce n’est pas une prédiction de ce qui va se passer, mais c’est ce que nous devons faire pour que le système puisse continuer à prêter», a-t-il déclaré. «Après tout, notre travail n’est pas d’espérer le meilleur mais de planifier le pire.»

La BoE a longtemps déclaré que ses tests de résistance représentaient des scénarios les plus défavorables plutôt que des prévisions des conséquences les plus probables.

Sources : The Times, Reuters, Presse britannique

Elisabeth Studer – www.leblogfinance.com – 15 septembre 2018

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    Il est parfaitement certain que l’Angleterre deviendra un paradis fiscal comme Jersey ou Gibraltar. Dans ce contexte comment envisager des problèmes “de prix de l’immobilier “

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