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Mi-séance CAC : début d’année sur les chapeaux de roue

Mi-séance CAC : début d’année sur les chapeaux de roue

C’est un bond de 2.3% qu’enregistre la bourse de Paris en cette mi-séance, le CAC 40 atteignant les 3725 pts avec en prime l’ouverture d’un énorme gap haussier. Un rebond d’autant plus surprenant que l’accord sur le fiscal cliff obtenu in-extrémis (une vraie mascarade) n’est qu’un accord a minima, et par ailleurs largement attendu.

Cette hausse est donc sans doute à aller chercher en grande partie ailleurs, et sans doute au niveau d’une poursuite du rattrapage entre marchés américains et marchés européens. Si j’en parle depuis de long mois, j’en reste pas moins surpris par sa rapidité. Sans doute la hausse de ce mercredi est elle aussi accentuée par des mouvements techniques et repositionnement de gérants de fonds. Il sera donc intéressant de voir ce que cela donnera dans les prochains jours.

En attendant, il s’agit de gérer au mieux cette situation. Graphiquement, le signal est clairement haussier, avec le franchissement des plus hauts de fin 2012. Le CAC réintègre le petit canal bleu clair (qui n’a toutefois plus vraiment de sens), tout en restant inscrit dans mes canaux MT vert et bleu. A voir ce soir quels réajustements seront nécessaires. Pour cet après-midi en tout cas, on surveillera à la hausse la zone des 3740 correspondant au haut du canal bleu clair et à une zone horizontale datant de 2011.

A la baisse, on surveillera surtout la zone des 3710. Tant que le CAC restera au dessus, le biais restera haussier. En cas de cassure, on devrait par contre revenir tester le haut du gap vers 3693, avant la zone des 3685, puis le bas du gap sur 3656…

Côté valeurs du CAC, les bancaires ont le vent en poupe, avec +5.2% pour la Société Générale et +4% pour BNP, devant Arcelor à +3.7% qui vient s’intercaler, les suivants étant le Crédit Agricole et Axa. Aucune baisse n’est par ailleurs à déplorer, Pernod se traitant à l’équilibre, tandis que Renault et Legrand ne gagnent que 0.7%.

Côté forex et matières premières enfin, l’euro, après un bond vers 1.33, revient sur 1.3246$, encore toutefois en hausse de 0.4%. Le pétrole lui gagne 1.1% à 92.9$ le baril de brut, tandis que l’once d’or bondit sur les 1683$… Nous n’en sommes pas à un paradoxe près!

 

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