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Clôture CAC 31/12/12 : 3641 (+0.58%)

Clôture CAC 31/12/12 : 3641 (+0.58%)

Malgré le violent repli de vendredi, et malgré l’absence d’accord sur le fiscal cliff, le CAC 40 est étonnamment reparti de l’avant aujourd’hui, prenant donc appui sur sa MM20 et sur la zone des 3600 pts pour revenir au contact des 3655 !

Quand je dis étonnamment, c’est que les futures américains ont clairement plongé vendredi après clôture, et n’ont pas entamé de redressement en ce lundi matin. Le CAC future est d’ailleurs venu faire une incursion sous les 3600 pts en préouverture (plus bas sur 3588, correspondant au plus haut du 14 septembre…). Mais après une ouverture sur 3600, le CAC a bizarrement repris 20 pts en l’espace d’une minute, avant de conforter sa hausse par la suite, revenant même légèrement au delà des plus bas de jeudi dernier.

Seules quelques ventes de prudence en toute fin de séance ramèneront le CAC sur les 3641. Le bilan de l’année reste toutefois appréciable, avec un gain de 15.23%, même si la bourse de Paris reste encore très en retard sur ces dernières années sur le DAX ou les marchés américains. Si le rattrapage, à l’oeuvre depuis quelques mois et très net depuis quelques semaines, se poursuit, cela pourrait nous valoir une poursuite de la hausse dans les prochaines semaines et prochains mois.

A moins que le fiscal cliff viennent bousculer la donne dès mercredi matin ? C’est ce que nous verrons, mais force est de constater que les investisseurs ne semblent pas bien inquiets en ce dernier jour de l’année…

Si on s’en tient à l’analyse graphique, le CAC reste en tout cas dans une configuration particulièrement favorable, malgré la bougie rouge de vendredi. Il a même pris appui ce matin sur les 3600 avant de revenir clôturer au dessus de la MM20. Un franchissement des 3655/3660 mercredi pourrait donc suffire pour relancer la bourse de Paris de l’avant, à l’assaut de nouveaux sommets.

Reste que tant que ces 3655/3660, nous pourrions assister à un nouveau test des 3600, voire à une relance baissière en direction du gap des 3520. Ce début d’année 2013 sera en tout cas très intéressant à surveiller. Difficile par contre de tirer des plans sur la comète, entre le fiscal cliff et les variations de ces derniers jours réalisées dans de faibles volumes. Comment se comporteront les investisseurs de retour de congé ?

Difficile à dire en ce lundi après-midi. On s’en tiendra donc aux résistances des 3655/3660 et 3685 à la hausse, et aux supports des 3600, 3585/3590 et au gap des 3520/3533 à la baisse.


A lire également :
Analyse CAC 28/12/12
Analyse Dow 18/12/12
Analyse Nasdaq 18/12/12

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