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Clôture CAC 28/12/12 : 3620 (-1.47%)

Clôture CAC 28/12/12 : 3620 (-1.47%)

Je ne croyais pas si bien dire en évoquant hier soir une possible inversion de la décorrélation entre marchés américains et marchés européens. Toujours est-il que le CAC a enregistré aujourd’hui, et sans nouvelles particulières, un net mouvement de repli alors même que Wall Street parvenait à se stabiliser.

La bourse de Paris est ainsi de retour sur sa moyenne mobile à 20 jours, et semble cette fois-ci bien partie pour une phase de consolidation. D’un point de vue graphique en tout cas, cette séance unidirectionnelle marque la très nette cassure du canal haussier bleu clair, et la formation d’un décuple avalement baissier! Si ce n’est pas un record, on ne doit pas en être loin… Il s’en est d’ailleurs fallu d’un peu plus d’un point pour que cette bougie en avale même une onzième (j’aurais d’ailleurs bien été embêté pour nommer cet avalement…).

Dans des volumes qui sont restés particulièrement faibles, le CAC 40 a donc effacé plus de deux semaines de hausse! Manipulation ou réelle consolidation ? Difficile à dire. Certains opérateurs ont-ils profité des faibles volumes pour déclencher des stops et se positionner à “bon” compte ? Ou cette période de congés a-t-elle été mise à profit pour lancer un brutal retournement de marché, histoire de prendre à revers un maximum d’opérateurs trop confiants pour début 2013 ?

Nous aurons la réponse dans les prochains jours, même si la séance de ce lundi sera elle aussi à prendre avec des pincettes, en raison de volumes qui devraient rester anémiques. Paris fermera ses portes à 14h, le Footsie à 13h30 et le DAX n’ouvrira même pas. Wall Street sera par contre ouverte normalement.

Attention également au fiscal cliff américain, qui devrait selon toute logique déboucher sur un accord ce week-end. Mais quelle sera la réaction du marché, sachant qu’il devrait s’agir d’un accord à minima, et par ailleurs largement attendu et anticipé ? Une brève envolée des marchés est donc possible, mais des ventes sur la nouvelle le sont tout autant.

La plus grande prudence sera donc de rigueur pour lundi, et on s’en tiendra avant tout à nos seuils graphiques, qui ont prouvé une nouvelle fois ces jours-ci, malgré de faibles volumes, leur pertinence.

A la baisse, on surveillera donc la zone des 3610/3620, correspondant à la MM20 et à une petite horizontale. Sa cassure devrait envoyer le CAC sur les 3590/3600, avant les 3575/3580. Le support suivant se situera au niveau de la Bollinger inférieure, qui devrait se situer lundi autour des 3560/3565.

A la hausse, la pression restera baissière tant que les 3640 puis surtout les 3650/3655 feront office de résistance. Ce n’est qu’au delà qu’on pourrait envisager une réelle reprise en main du marché par les acheteurs, et un retour sur les plus hauts de ces derniers jours.


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