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Clôture CAC 02/01/13 : 3734 (+2.55%)

Clôture CAC 02/01/13 : 3734 (+2.55%)

Dans mon analyse de jeudi dernier, j’avais fait le tour des différents scénarios possibles à l’issue du fiscal cliff, et tous arrivaient à la même conclusion : un risque de repli des marchés (vente sur la nouvelle, accord a minima impliquant de nouvelles négociations et incertitudes, etc…). Force est de constater toutefois que d’autres facteurs sont venus prendre le relais, la prise en compte de cette nouvelle ayant finalement coïncidé avec la première séance de l’année 2013!

Poursuite du rattrapage par rapport à Wall Street ? Positionnements techniques en ce début d’année après les congés de fin d’année ? Facteurs techniques et rachats de positions vendeuses ? Quelle que soit la vraie raison, pour autant qu’il y en ait une, la bourse de Paris a en tout cas démarré l’année 2013 sur les chapeaux de roue, avec en prime l’ouverture d’un énorme gap haussier entre 3656 et 3693.

Un gap qui permet au CAC de repartir très nettement de l’avant, en s’affranchissant des plus hauts de fin 2012 tout en réintégrant le canal bleu clair. J’envisageais d’ailleurs de retravailler ce dernier suite à la cassure de fin 2012. Je n’ai toutefois pas trouvé de réelle alternative pour l’instant, si ce n’est en l’élargissant, l’ancienne base devant médiane.

On continuera donc de suivre l’évolution immédiate du CAC 40 par rapport à ces obliques bleu clair, en notant pour ce jeudi que la résistance se situera sur les 3755/3760. Compte tenu de la clôture du jour au plus haut, il est tout à fait possible que nous assistions à une tentative en direction de cette zone, même s’il ne faudra pas négliger la zone de résistance horizontale des 3740 issue de 2011.

Au delà des 3755/3760, la prochaine zone de résistance devrait se situer autour des 3790/3800, juste avant la résistance bleu foncé sur 3815 demain, tandis que le premier objectif théorique lié au franchissement des 3600 se situe autour des 3850. A quelques semaines, on n’oubliera enfin pas non plus le gap baissier laissé ouvert sur les 3890/3913 en 2011, et qui pourrait constituer un objectif intéressant pour les acheteurs en ce début d’année.

A la baisse, on surveillera en premier lieu la zone des 3710/3715 qui a tout d’abord bloqué le CAC ce matin, avant de le soutenir cet après-midi. En cas de cassure, un retour sur le haut du gap est attendu, voir sur les plus hauts de fin 2012 au niveau des 3685. Un comblement rapide du gap de ce matin serait par contre un signal à surveiller, même si les acheteurs auront encore en soutien la base du canal bleu clair, sur 3615 demain.

 

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    Ca se tient, les arguments tiennent la route

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    Je ne sais pas si “les arguments tiennent la route”, mais depuis pas mal de temps les hausses marquent avant tout la progression de la masse monétaire. Comme elles sont en elles même production de monnaie, il est bien compliqué de prévoir ce que sera le devenir d’un tel balancier.
    A partir du moment ou le lien entre capacité de l’économie réelle et production de monnaie est aussi faible, le risque d’un effondrement rapide n’est pas certainement pas exclu.
    En mesurant à l’avance les distorsions, sensibles des 2006, on aurait évité bien des problèmes à ce brave Jéjé (Kerviel)
    Comme contrairement à la propagande statistique habituelle l’électroencéphalogramme de l’économie US est plat. Inutile de chercher trop longtemps qui va se faire à nouveau plumer!!

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