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Zone euro : croissance du secteur privé à un plus bas depuis 2014

Elisabeth Studer Actualités, Economie 3 commentaires
Zone euro : croissance du secteur privé à un plus bas depuis 2014

L’année 2019 s’annonce guère brillante pour la zone euro … L’heure n’étant pas à la croissance. Selon le cabinet Markit, la croissance du secteur privé dans la zone euro a ralenti en décembre. Elle a désormais atteint le plus bas niveau enregistré depuis plus de quatre ans.

Dans le cadre de la deuxième estimation de l’indice PMI composite du cabinet Markit, l’indice mensuel s’affiche désormais à 51,1 points en décembre contre 51,3 points lors de la première estimation et 52,7 en novembre 2018. Pour rappel, le fait que l’indice PMI soit supérieur à 50 points est indicateur d’une activité en progression. Inversement, l’activité régresse si l’indice est inférieur à ce seuil.

Selon le cabinet, la croissance du secteur privé n’avait pas été aussi faible depuis fin 2014.

La valeur enregistrée se situe même en deçà de celle obtenue à partir du consensus des analystes interrogés par le fournisseur de services financiers Factset. Si ces derniers tablaient certes sur un essoufflement, ils s’attendaient à ce que l’indice avoisine 51,3 en décembre. Correspondant à la valeur initialement estimée par Markit.

La France grandement impactée par les Gilets jaunes

Selon le cabinet, la baisse de l’activité globale de la zone euro peut être en partie attribuée au mouvement des Gilets jaunes en France. Il note toutefois que le mouvement – et donc ses conséquences économiques – reste limités à l’Hexagone. Laissant ainsi entendre que le vent de révolte qui souffle actuellement sur la France ne peut expliquer à lui seul l’ampleur de la régression.

Reste que dans l’Hexagone, la situation est quelque peu préoccupante. Pour la première fois depuis plus de deux ans, l’activité du secteur privé s’est contractée en décembre. Le mouvement des Gilets jaunes a notamment pesé sur le secteur des services.

L’indice composite, qui évalue l’activité de l’ensemble de l’économie française, s’est ainsi élevé à 48,7 points en décembre. Ce qui selon les termes mêmes employés par le cabinet, constitue un repli “considérable” par rapport au mois précédent (54,2 points) .

L’indicateur, qui s’appuie sur un panel de 400 entreprises opérant en France, se situe désormais au-dessous de la barre des 50 points, au-delà de laquelle l’activité est considérée comme en expansion. Une telle situation n’avait pas été observée depuis l’été 2016.

Le volume des nouvelles affaires du secteur des services a ainsi enregistré sa première diminution depuis février 2016. La baisse de la demande a induit en effet un ralentissement de l’expansion du volume du travail en cours.

Le contexte actuel a incité les prestataires de services à ralentir le rythme des embauches. De ce fait souligne Markit, , les effectifs du secteur enregistrent leur plus faible hausse depuis vingt mois.

Pour le cabinet, “ce repli inattendu de l’activité représente un risque considérable de ralentissement de la croissance au quatrième trimestre, alors que l’économie française était en position de réaliser une hausse trimestrielle respectable de son PIB”.

La faiblesse de la France ne peut à elle seule expliquer la faiblesse de la zone euro

« En dehors de la faiblesse actuelle de l’industrie automobile (que l’on peut espérer temporaire), le reste de la région ne connaît pas de difficultés comparables”, souligne les analystes de Markit. C’est donc qu’il faut chercher la cause ailleurs.

Selon eux, le repli de l’activité s’explique par le “pessimisme des entreprises quant à un rebond prochain de la demande”.

A l’heure actuelle, les prévisions de croissance des entreprises s’avèrent fortement malmenées par de nombreux aléas tels que la guerre commerciale qui voit s’affronter la Chine et les Etats-Unis, les conséquences du Brexit , l’instabilité politique croissante, la volatilité des marchés financiers et le ralentissement de la croissance économique mondiale.

Sources : AFP, Markit

Elisabeth Studer – 6 janvier 2019 – www.leblogfinance.com

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