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La croissance de la France mise à mal par les Gilets Jaunes

La croissance de la France mise à mal par les Gilets Jaunes

Les premiers impacts des mouvements des Gilets jaunes sur l’économie française peuvent d’ores et déjà être quantifiés …. mais ils devraient malheureusement ne pas être les derniers.

Perte de 0,1 point de croissance

Le ministre des Finances, Bruno Le Maire a indiqué lundi que les troubles liés aux manifestations feront perdre 0,1 point de croissance à la France sur le dernier trimestre de cette année.

Un seuil d’endettement / PIB encore plus difficile à atteindre

Histoire également de démontrer que le mouvement pourrait au final avoir des effets totalement inverses aux revendications initiales liées au pouvoir d’achat. Car, qui dit marasme économique, dit difficultés pour les entreprises … sans parler du chômage. Effet encore plus néfaste : alors que la France est pointée du doigt par l’Union européenne dans son incapacité à réduire son déficit public – Paris s’étant engagée à ne pas dépasser le seuil de 3 %  de son PIB …. le fait que la croissance diminue – impactant mathématiquement le PIB – n’arrange vraiment rien à l’affaire.

Vers une réduction de la croissance au niveau annuel

“Je pense que les événements actuels devraient nous faire perdre 0,1 point de croissance de notre richesse nationale au dernier trimestre”, a ainsi déclaré le ministre sur RTL. Il refuse toutefois – pour l’instant – de revoir à la baisse la croissance française pour l’ensemble de l’année 2018. Le gouvernement table toujours sur un taux de 1,7%.

Ne souhaitant pas faire de révision pour l’instant, il estime toutefois que le pays aura “sans doute” 0,1 point de croissance en moins à la fin de l’année. Le ministre avait d’ores et déjà estimé à 0,1 point l’impact négatif de la grève à la SNCF sur la croissance de la grève à la SNCF. Il se pourrait donc que le taux final de progression soit amputé de 0,2 point.

La Banque de France plus pessimiste

La Banque de France ne table plus désormais que sur un taux de de croissance du PIB français de 0,2%, pour le quatrième trimestre, contre 0,4% précédemment. L’établissement financier observe que l’impact du mouvement des Gilets jaunes se fait sentir dans “la plupart des secteurs”.

Des impacts irrattrapables et à large portée

A ceux qui espèrent encore que ces mauvaises performances économiques et commerciales soient rattrapables, Bruno Le Maire répond par la négative. Calculant d’ores et déjà l’impact des actes de vandalisme, pillage et dégâts observés ces derniers samedis. Commerçants, indépendants sont souvent de baisser le rideau (s’il est encore en état … ) pour protéger ce qui peut encore être protéger, les empêchant de rouvrir … et donc de vendre.

Mais le ministre s’inquiète également de l’image de la France à travers le monde, laquelle pourrait rebuter les investisseurs étrangers.

Sources : AFP, RTL

Elisabeth Studer – 10 décembre 2018 – www.leblogfinance.com

A lire également :

Le Medef ne veut pas payer la facture économique des Gilets jaunes

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60 commentaires

  1. retrouvé le retour 11 décembre 2018 à 12:49

    Nous sommes habitués a des statistiques fantaisistes sur la pseudo croissance US, nous n’allons pas faire nous aussi des trucages massifs de stats. C’est fondamentalement dangereux.
    L’ensemble des systèmes statistiques à cependant beaucoup moins d’importance que les annonces boursières fantaisistes qui en dopant les indices conduisent à une perte de maitrise totale sur la création monétaire. :( :(

  2. retrouvé le retour 22 décembre 2018 à 00:12

    https://www.romandie.com/news/Le-je-vous-ai-compris-de-la-Banque-centrale-am-ricaine-rassure-un-peu-les-march-s/982169.rom

    La FED tente encore d’organiser des “glissements” monétaires ( pour être prude !!). Le grenouillage des taux directeurs n’a aucune importance car les masses monétaires accumulées par quelques pingouins dans la zone $, sont un balancier bien trop énorme. Gare.

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  5. retrouvé le retour 31 décembre 2018 à 20:14

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