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Cours du maïs et soja dopés par la trêve commerciale entre Chine et Usa

Cours du maïs et soja dopés par la trêve commerciale entre Chine et Usa

Les cours du maïs et du soja cotés à Chicago auront largement bénéficié cette semaine de la baisse des tensions entre Etats-Unis et Chine.

Après un dîner de travail de plus de deux heures entre Donald Trump et Xi Jinping, qui s’est tenu en marge du G20 à Buenos Aires le 1er décembre dernier, les deux dirigeants ont «trouvé un accord pour mettre fin à la mise en oeuvre de nouveaux droits de douane», certaines mesures concernant les produits agricoles.

Le vice-ministre du commerce Wang Shouwen a précisé que Washington renonçait à porter comme prévu de 10% à 25% les droits de douanes sur 200 milliards de dollars d’importations chinoises – la moitié du total – à partir du 1er janvier. La Maison Blanche a néanmoins fait savoir que cette décision n’était suspendue que pour une durée de 90 jours.

Les marchés ont fortement réagi dès le début de la semaine, les investisseurs tablant sur le fait que la Chine passe rapidement des commandes de maïs ou de soja. Les cours ont également été dopés par la perspective d’une éventuelle baisse des taxes  – élevées – sur l’importation de certaines denrées agricoles en provenance des Etats-Unis.
Peu à peu les « ardeurs » à l’achat se sont quelque peu essoufflées, aucun détail sur contenu et date d’actes concrets  -  susceptibles d’impacter le marché en faisant apparaître une hausse de la demande -  n’étant communiqué. Certains analystes s’attendaient ainsi à l’annonce ponctuelle de commandes de maïs ou de soja de la part du ministère américain de l’Agriculture (USDA), mais tel n’a pas été le cas.

Des spécialistes du domaine, rappellent par ailleurs que la Chine détient d’ores et déjà  d’énormes réserves de maïs. Ils estiment de ce fait que toute éventuelle commande ne devrait pas accroître les exportations américaines de manière significative.

Autre élément à prendre en compte : l’épidémie de fièvre porcine africaine qui a nettement affecté les élevages de porcs dans l’Empire du Milieu. Réduisant d’autant la demande en nourriture animale. De ce fait, les importations chinoises de soja et de tourteaux de soja pourraient être restreintes.

Il convient également de compter sur la part de plus en plus importante prise par le Brésil, la récolte de soja s’annonçant  particulièrement abondante cette année dans le pays. Ainsi, depuis 2016, la part de marché du Brésil dans les exportations mondiales est passée de 42,2% à 49,5%, alors que parallèlement celle des Etats-Unis reculait de 39,9% à 33,2%.

Certains analystes estiment que si la trêve commerciale conclue entre Chine et Etats-Unis peut faire pencher la balance du cote des USA, les parts de marché perdues ne devraient pas être regagnées. L’espoir est tout de même de mise alors que Donald Trump a indiqué dans un tweet vendredi que les discussions commerciales avec la Chine se déroulaient “très bien”.

La semaine prochaine s’avère d ‘autant plus cruciale pour les investisseurs que l’USDA doit publié mardi prochain son rapport mensuel sur l’offre et la demande de produits agricoles dans le monde (Wasde).
Si certains analystes concèdent que le rapport de décembre ne constitue certes pas le plus important de ceux publiés au fil de l’année, les tensions liées au conflit commercial entre la Chine et les Etats-Unis devraient quelque peu changer la donne. Les prévisions sur les exportations de soja américain et sur l’importance de la récolte au Brésil seront ainsi suivi de près dans un tel contexte.

Au final, vendredi, le boisseau de maïs pour livraison en mars, contrat le plus échangé, a terminé la journée à 3,8550 dollars contre 3,7775 dollars en fin de semaine dernière à la clôture, enregistrant une hausse de 2,05%.

Parallèlement, le boisseau de soja pour janvier, contrat le plus échangé, a clôturé à 9,1675 dollars contre 8,9475 dollars la semaine passée, en hausse de 2,46%.

Sources : AFP, Doane Advisory Services, Ag Watch Market Advisors, Bourse de Chicago

Elisabeth Studer – 08 décembre 2018 – www.leblogfinance.com

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