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Pétrole : le cours “victime” de l’offre et du dollar

cushing_oil_storag2.jpgLe cours du brut a débuté la semaine en nette baisse à New York. Le niveau conséquent des réserves américaines et le raffermissement du billet vert lui ont en effet été préjudiciables.

Sur le New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), le baril de “light sweet crude” pour livraison en juin a terminé ainsi à 84,20 dollars, en repli de 92 cents par rapport à vendredi.

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  1. Lambert Francis 27 avril 2010 à 08:06

    The Imminent Crash Of The Oil Supply
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18948.html
    Graph drawn by the United States Department of Energy, and the United States military’s Joint Forces Command …
    In a year and a half production of all liquid fuels, including oil, will drop within 20 years to half what it is today.
    1`. Conventional oil will be almost all gone in 20 years
    2.. Production of petroleum from existing conventional sources has been dropping at a rate slightly over 4% per year for at least a year
    3. we are past the peak of production
    4. 4. Total petroleum production will remain “flat” at approximately 83 mbpd for the next two years and then slowly but by 4% per year after 2015.
    5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
    5. The production will plummet from its present 81 mbpd to 30 mbpd by 2030, a 63% drop in a 20-year period.
    (…)
    - zero time to plan how to replace cars in our lives
    - zero time to plan how to manufacture and install millions of furnaces
    - zero time toproduce the infrastructure necessary to carry out that task
    - zero time to retool suburbia so it can function without gasoline
    - zero time to plan for replacement of the largest military
    (…)
    “Discovery reached a peak in the 1960s – despite all the technology
    (…)
    WHY DID IT TAKE UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO GET HERE?
    Like anthropogenic global warming (“AGW”), “peak oil” has been the subject of decades of denial.
    The fact is, coming to that point meant we were in trouble regardless, because the early stages of development of an oil field (like the early stages of growth of virtually anything else) follow an exponential growth curve, and the world’s growth addicts love exponential curves, but once you get beyond the halfway point, it is a mathematical certainty that the longer you attempt to conform the field to a pattern of exponential growth, the more the end is going to be precipitous. If you don’t decelerate rapidly, that is precisely what has to happen – the decline after the halfway point can only be more rapid than the rise beforehand.
    If the field is just allowed to release its liquid gold at its natural rate, that’s not too bad, because observations like the Hubbert Peak can be applied. But as technology improves and well pressure can be jacked up to compensate for declining reserves, (for instance by pumping water into the wells) the outside observer loses certainty.. There remains information about the company’s reserves, but the accuracy of that information is seriously open to question.
    Matt Simmons … says that … ” oil companies like ExxonMobil would be strongly opposed to the idea of transparent data because it would reveal

  2. Yan75 27 avril 2010 à 11:38

    bonjour à tous!
    Où va donc le pétrole?
    On a beau fermer les yeux le krach pétrolier semble être inévitable…
    Alors à réfléchir pour ceux qui voudraient investir dans l’or noir…
    Si cela vous intéresse, MoneyWeek vient de publier sur son site un article à ce sujet : Pétrole :

  3. Yan75 27 avril 2010 à 11:39

    bonjour à tous!
    Où va donc le pétrole?
    On a beau fermer les yeux le krach pétrolier semble être inévitable…
    Alors à réfléchir pour ceux qui voudraient investir dans l’or noir…
    Si cela vous intéresse, MoneyWeek vient de publier sur son site un article à ce sujet : Pétrole :

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